Total Betfair Football Trading

The Underdog Method™

This method involves laying the underdog in certain matches if they take an early lead.

We are taking advantage of the fact that the market is over reacting to the underdog taking the lead which makes them much shorter then they should be. The reason for this is that most of the money will be on the favourite and if they fall behind then the markets will panic and those who backed the favourite will now be laying the favourite in order to protect their investment. Then there will be some who now feel that the underdog has a good chance of winning and they will throw money on the underdog. This drives the price too low, too quickly which make for a great trading opportunity.

Laying the under dog after they have taken a surprise lead is quite an obvious strategy, however many people often go wrong with it by not sticking to matches which hit the right conditions.

With this method we will only be performing this trade on matches that fit the following conditions.

 

  • Strong Home Favourite Priced 2 and below
  • Underdog takes the lead in FIRST half only
  • Maximum lay odds of 3.5

 

When you have a match with a strong home favourite who falls behind in the first half this often wakes the favourite up. They will then up their game to go for an equaliser and in most times they will normally get it within the next twenty minutes. This will see the under dog trade much lower then they should and then return to a much higher price once the equaliser arrives. On a busy Saturday afternoon of football you can often find these opportunities crop up quite a lot.

 

The System:

 

1) When you have identified some matches with a strong home favourite you will simply wait and see if the underdog takes the lead during the first half. If the goal does come then its time to enter your lay stake on the underdog once the market reforms.

 

2) Once you have put in your lay bet on the underdog you will observe the match and await the expected equaliser. Once the equaliser arrives you will then green up across all possible outcomes.

 

3) There will be times when the favourite struggles to get back into the match. This is when you need to use your discretion and personal judgement. If the favourite still hasn’t equalised by the 70th minute then we will probably exit this trade for a loss and turn to the Correct Score market for the remaining time. This would actually then be ideal for the Golden Goal Method.

4) On some rare occasions, you will find the underdog goes on to score a second goal. When this happens you should just take the loss and move on. If you are picking matches within our specified odds range then you will find this happens a small percentage of the time.

Bonus Tips:

Only Use On Important Matches – This method should ideally only be used on matches that you know are crucial to the favourite. We would recommend to avoid using this on any cup matches apart from the Champions League. From looking at the result of last season and the feedback from members we definitely found that this method was most vulnerable in the weaker competitions and also the weaker leagues across Europe. To be safe, stick to using this only in top level leagues (Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga)

Watch The Match Closely – This is a strategy that certainly requires that you keep a close eye on the action. There are times when an underdog will take the lead but you can tell it wont last long however there are times when the underdog will take the lead and it will be fully deserved and they might even look like they might score another! These situations can easily be avoided just by actually watching the match when using this strategy, especially since your liability on this trade can be quite high risk compared to others.

Real Life Examples:

 

Example 1:


The first day of the new season in the Scottish Premier League. Rangers were priced @ 1.40 to beat Heats however Hearts have surprisingly taken the lead in the 16th minute. We manage to lay Hearts @ 3.25. As you can see in the image, 3.25 isnt currently available but this just shows why its worth trying to put an order into the market to grab the lower price.

Half time and its still Hearts who lead in this game. This is often a good point to decide how much further you want to take this trade. As you can see, the odds havent gone that low so taking the loss here wouldnt be too damaging. However, Since Rangers have a strong home record we decide to stay in.

Early in the second half and it looks like there has been a goal and its Rangers who have inevitably equalised.

When the market reforms we lock in our profit on all outcomes!

 

Example 2:

We have just spotted a match on the coupon in Sweden with two teams we haven’t even heard of. However, the odds fit the specifications and so this match looks perfect for our underdog strategy. Brommapojkarna have just taken the lead and we lay them @ 1.91 with £25.

Its the 68th minute and the strong home favourite, Atvidabergs has just equalised. We can now green up for profit of £16 which is around 64% return!

Conclusion:

As long as you stick to the correct matches and the favourites with the odds specified then you should win this trade around 79% of the time. As mentioned earlier this strategy works well when used in conjunction with the Golden Goal method. This is where you would lay the correct score going into the final 15 minutes if the equaliser hasn’t arrived. As usual, you have many options that can potentially help you out of a sticky spot!

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