Total Betfair Football Trading

The Golden Goal Method™

Feedback from our members has suggested this is one of the most popular methods within the package.

This method is more like a value laying method then outright trading however since there are exit strategies in place then it is still technically football trading.

You will be laying the current score in the Correct Score market very late on in the match which is the best time of the match for goals to be scored. We have profiled matches where you will have one team doing all they can to score a goal which can usually result in a goal being scored at either end.  A famous Betfair Trader by the name of Psychoff is rumoured to have made over $100k using just this type of strategy!

All we need is one goal to win and that’s why this method is called the “Golden Goal”.

 

The conditions needed for the Golden Goal Method are:

  • Match to be in the closing stages (70+ minutes)
  • Strong Pre-Match Home Favourite (1.75 and lower) NOT winning
  • Game which is high tempo and open

We are taking advantage of the fact that football has so many late goals, the urgency of the home team to get a goal and the low laying odds on the Correct Score market at this time.


The system:

1)Find a match where the 75th minute has arrived and the strong home favourite is either drawing or losing by one goal.

2) Around this time you will see that the current Correct Score market price is about to hit odds of 2.0 any moment. You are going to lay this current score @ 2.0.

3) Next all you do is sit back and wait for that Golden Goal to arrive. No trading out is needed as once the goal comes, you win the full stake!

Reasoning:

You will find that the home team will usually do all they possibly can to break down the underdog and they will literally lay siege to the opposition goal. This makes this a great opportunity for us as a goal is very normally on the cards. How many times do you see Man Utd or Chelsea nick a goal late on when they need it??

What makes this strategy even better is that it doesn’t matter who scores! The home favourite will be committing many players up one end of the field whilst chasing that goal and you will find that the under dog can often go up the other end of the pitch and clinch it themselves!

Obviously, it’s down to you to use your own discretion with which matches you use this method on. There might be some matches where the favourite is clearly not playing very well at all and so you wouldn’t try and go for the golden goal in these matches.

This strategy can and should be incredibly profitable as you only need to get it right 6 times out of ten, or 55% of the time to make a profit!

 

Exit Strategy:

With the Golden Goal method you generally won’t need an exit strategy. We like to let this run all the way down to the final whistle as you will find many goals are scored in injury time too. Obviously if a goal is scored then you win so no need to trade out.

However, if you have applied this method and then begin to feel that a goal is unlikely to arrive then you can simply trade out of the position and lock in the loss across the board. This is obviously down to your own personal judgement but it is good to know that you can still exit if things aren’t going your way.

 

Advanced Strategy:

After watching many matches you often develop a feel for how the matches are going and you can tell when another goal might be possible.

If you have already had the Golden Goal you were looking for and you feel there might be another goal on the cards then you can enter the market again.

When you do this you are potentially playing up your profits and you can lay the current score again in order to win double the amount. If the favourite has just scored to make it 1-1 and now they are chasing the winner this can be a great time to enter the market again and chase the double up!

The great thing about this is that you now literally can’t lose as you are only playing with potential profits.

Be wary about doing this too often as you don’t want throw your profits away chasing the second goal.

 

Rookie Mistakes

This method is great and should make you a lot of money however the main problem with it is that it can seem TOO EASY!

This often leads to some inexperienced traders trying to apply this method to all sorts of matches which don’t fit the conditions. You will find that if a team is 2 goals up then the players will normally give up and there is no urgency to get further goals.

Some will also start over-staking on this method too as they feel it’s so easy. You can easily go for 5-6 matches in a row with only winners but you can also then have 3-4 in a row with no winners. As long as you keep your strike rate above 55% then you will make a profit using this method.

It’s important that you keep your head and make your selections carefully.

Bonus Tips:

Watch The Shot Count – You should not just use this method blindly but you should look to take each match as it comes. If you are in a situation where the favourite is drawing 0-0 and the 75th minute arrives then this might be a match that fits the criteria but you should still check how the favourite has been performing. Bring up some live in-play stats or watch the match via a stream or TV to see if they really are going for it to get the late goal. Sometimes you will actually watch the match and realise that the favourite is playing poorly and wont score in a million years. These are the matches to avoid!

Real Life Examples

Example 1:

It is the 77th minute in a Premier League match between Tottenham and Blackpool. Tottenham are strong favourites to win this match and were priced at 1.30 to win before it started. However, currently Blackpool are leading this game by one goal to zero. With Spurs pressing hard for an equaliser this is the perfect opportunity to apply the golden goal method!


We now lay the score of 0-1 to Blackpool with a stake of £25.


Very soon our bet is matched as you can see above and now we observe the final 15 minutes to see if either side comes close to scoring another goal. Remember, if it doesn’t seem likely that a goal will be scored we can still exit this trade and accept a smaller loss.


Just 6 minutes later and we have the Golden Goal that we need as Jermaine Defoe levels the scoring with a 25 yard screamer!

The market reforms and as you can see above we don’t have to trade out as there is now no possible way the game can finish as 0-1 and we win our full stake! How easy was that??

Example 2:


Its the 76th minute and Chelsea are currently drawing 1-1 with Newcastle. Chelsea have a strong home record and rarely fail to win at home and they are currently putting Newcastle under a lot of pressure. They were priced at odds of 1.25 to win this game which makes them really strong favourites. So we lay the 1-1 scoreline at odds of 2.0.


About 5 minutes later and Alex heads Chelsea back into the lead!


We don’t have to do any trading after that as we have now made £25 profit no matter the final outcome of the match.

Example 3:


It is the late stages in a game from the French Lique 1 and this is a must win game for the 1.33 favourites Dijon who are currently drawing 1-1 with Grenoble. Dijon are going all out to score this elusive goal as this would guarantee promotion for them. With a late goal expected we simply lay the current score of 1-1 at odds of 2.0 for £25.


We continue watching the match on Betfair video and eventually Dijon manage to break Grenoble down.


As you can see the goal arrived in the 83rd minute. When using the golden goal method you will see some goals scored with the last kick of the game!


We are now as good as all green as there is no need to trade out and we have secured a nice quick profit for this match. These examples just underline how easy it is to win this lay bet when you pick these types of matches. Since you only need a 55% strike rate you should be comfortably in profit in the long term by doing this.

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