Total Betfair Football Trading

The Silver Goal Method™
This is very similar to the Golden Goal and is a laying method rather then a trading strategy. This takes advantage of the fact that all football games have the majority of their goals in the second half. Also, 78% of all games will have at least one goal in the second half.

The conditions needed for this method are:

  • Half time score of 1-0 or 0-1
  • No Goals scored in the second half so far
  • Amount matched to be £5k +

 

The System:

If the half time score between two teams has been either 1-0 or 0-1 then we will leave a lay order in the market at odds of 3.0 for that current score. This will normally be matched around the 55th-65th minute. If a goal is scored before the order gets matched then we leave this game and move on to the next one.

The important part of this method is that you will be splitting your stake in half. You will be laying the first half @ 3.0 and the second half @ 2.0. So if your stake for this match is going to be £20 then you will lay £10 @ 3.0 and then £10 @ 2.0. The main reasoning for this is that there are more goals scored from the 76th minute onwards then from the 60th-75th minute. Therefore it makes more sense to break your stake up and drip feed it into the market rather then taking a straight punt!

To win using this strategy all we need is a single goal to be scored between the moment you enter the market and the end of the match. This normally gives you the final 30 minutes plus injury time to grab that all important goal.

 

Reasoning:
Since we have picked a match with only a one goal gap between the sides you will often find that the closing stages will be quite open with the losing team doing all they can to get back in the match. This leaves all sorts of gaps all around the pitch and increases the likelihood of goals.

As with the golden goal method, it doesn’t matter who scores as once that goal goes in, we have won!

As usual you should use your own judgement about the matches to enter. Try and decide if the losing team has what it takes to get back in the game. Also, look for signs that the winning team will be happy to defend their lead rather then to increase it. If you are ever in doubt then don’t enter, there are plenty more matches to come!

You should expect to have a really high strike rate when applying the Silver Goal method. There were some times during last season where I would go 10 matches in a row without finding a loser.

 

Important Note: There are some football leagues which are notorious for having low scoring games. The French, Portuguese and Serie A leagues are all ones which should be approached with caution when using this method. Playing out a 1-0 victory in these leagues is a very common approach and so you should try and avoid using this method on those games while this is still a trend.

 

Exit Strategy:

Just like with the golden goal we will try not to implement an exit strategy with this method. Testing has shown it is often best to let this bet run its course even up to the 90th minute. However, if you are watching a game and the tempo starts to die in the closing stages or neither teams looks interested then you can exit at any odds you choose. This is purely down to your own judgement and is a good option to have if the game doesn’t turn out the way you expect it.

 

Advanced Strategy:

As with the golden goal method, we can potentially play up our profits once we have got that first goal. If you are watching the match and it seems that even more goals are likely then you can enter again and potentially double your money.

This is an advanced strategy as you really have to know the teams that you are watching well and have a good feel for the game.

Bonus Tips:

Only Use When 0-1 – Last season, most of our members found this method worked best when the scoreline was 0-1 to the Away team or the underdog. This makes perfect sense since the home team or the stronger team will be constantly coming forward and going for the equaliser. This makes the match more open and the chance of a goal at either end is increased.  When starting out, you should definitely look to use this primarily when the Away team is the one with the lead.

Using @ 2-1, 3-2 etc – The same principle for this method applies when there is a one goal lead to either side in the match. With this strategy we basically want to know that either of the teams is going to be piling men forward for a goal and making the match more open.

Delaying Your Entry – There is no set rule for entering when the odds hit 3. If you are watching the match and the conditions are right but there is no tempo and you have not seen a shot on goal for a while then just do not enter. You can not lose any money if you don’t put anything in there. Sometimes it is actually better to wait for a manager to make a substitution in this case since that can often be the turning point as fresh legs can open the game up more.
Real Life Trading Examples:

Example 1

We are watching a match from the Austrian league on Betfair Video between LASK Linz and Sturm Graz. The first half ended 0-1 to Sturm Graz and it has been a lively match. So we enter our bets into the market.


By the 60th minute our first bet is matched and LASK Linz are trying their hardest to grab the equaliser. We will keep watching it to ensure the match remains high tempo.


Just as our second bet is matched there is a goal!


Despite all the pressure from LASK Linz, Sturm Graz have gone up the other end and grabbed one against the run of play. This doesn’t matter to us though as we have now made a nice profit of £20!

Example 2


It was an entertaining first half between Bochum and Duisburg in the German Bundesliga 2 league. Bochum lead 1-0 but Duisburg have been pressing so we enter our bets into the market and get the first bet matched around the 65th minute.


The match remains lively but still no further goals, by the 76th minute our second bet gets matched and we continue to observe the game on Betfair Live Video. We can always exit this trade for a smaller loss if we don’t believe a goal will arrive.


By the 83rd minute a goal arrives and the market is suspended before it reforms again.


Bochum’s pressure has finally paid off and they have doubled their lead and we walk away with £20 profit!

Example 3

It is half time in a match from the Bundesliga in Germany. Hamburg are trailing 0-1 to M’gladbach. With Hamburg going all out to grab an equaliser and both goalkeepers being called into action we enter our bets into the market at the start of the second half.


We get our first bet matched around the 64th minute mark. In this case the silver goal arrives before we get our second bet taken. This doesn’t matter as a profit is a profit and we make £10!


Conclusion:
You have just discovered some very profitable in-play trading strategies. It is easy to make money in-play as the markets lose their efficiency and you can gain an easy edge simply by watching the events unfold in front of you.

The important thing is to stick to the conditions we have outlined in this manual. Eventually, you will develop an instinct for the game and you will know when to apply the methods and to which matches without even thinking!

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